Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 2.657517 3.110113 3.611796 4.208480 4.898184 5.669723 6.597647
2025-11-16 1.907477 2.500716 3.230696 4.192051 5.421699 6.938497 8.947984
2025-11-23 1.447050 2.086603 2.945160 4.175188 5.884402 8.166547 11.434426
2025-11-30 1.205994 1.884964 2.865755 4.373383 6.617312 9.815111 14.694517
2025-12-07 0.991847 1.665316 2.703297 4.400649 7.083027 11.127753 17.646924
2025-12-14 0.824463 1.477095 2.543549 4.387028 7.460363 12.332624 20.574570
2025-12-21 0.699726 1.330556 2.417997 4.395128 7.854632 13.591929 23.726812
2025-12-28 0.653082 1.309139 2.494706 4.748043 8.861145 15.955209 28.966351
2026-01-04 0.579273 1.222327 2.438777 4.851997 9.439633 17.654735 33.271337
2026-01-11 0.521013 1.153872 2.403584 4.984177 10.079291 19.526473 38.090077
2026-01-18 0.460413 1.068765 2.321159 5.009348 10.513724 21.066037 42.467849
2026-01-25 0.394458 0.959445 2.171510 4.874377 10.610381 21.971844 45.737537
2026-02-01 0.328854 0.839812 1.983964 4.638313 10.483152 22.455510 48.304560
2026-02-08 0.285054 0.762652 1.876655 4.559895 10.678130 23.613154 52.383420
2026-02-15 0.250282 0.700487 1.792766 4.520337 10.950987 24.963150 57.023831
2026-02-22 0.234554 0.683786 1.813106 4.726151 11.802802 27.643919 64.814793
2026-03-01 0.210970 0.641226 1.762741 4.752666 12.239839 29.462718 70.916131
2026-03-08 0.188373 0.596662 1.699622 4.737001 12.572546 31.082915 76.752608
2026-03-15 0.169663 0.559349 1.649073 4.745353 12.964466 32.882707 83.204288
2026-03-22 0.167438 0.571116 1.733516 5.124774 14.346397 37.178523 96.019668
2026-03-29 0.155221 0.549317 1.720600 5.236504 15.047748 39.904521 105.339935
2026-04-05 0.145136 0.532278 1.718583 5.378603 15.849028 42.966313 115.818307
2026-04-12 0.132513 0.504077 1.678753 5.405658 16.340241 45.299007 124.715300